---
title: "Scenario Planning and What-If Analysis - Examples - MCP and AI - Ajuda para o MetaTrader 5"
description: "Volatility doubling: Correlation crisis: Failure of the best setup: Skip-or-trade decision: Half-size results: Only top... - Scenario Planning and What-If Analysis - Examples - MCP and AI"
image: "https://www.metatrader5.com/i/logo_metatrader5.png"
url: "https://www.metatrader5.com/pt/terminal/help/practical_examples/scenario_planning"
---

[Ajuda para o MetaTrader 5](https://www.metatrader5.com/pt/terminal/help) → [MCP and AI](https://www.metatrader5.com/pt/terminal/help/mcp_and_ai) → [Examples](https://www.metatrader5.com/pt/terminal/help/mcp_and_ai/practical_examples) → Scenario Planning and What-If Analysis

# Scenario Planning and What-If Analysis Using AI with MetaTrader

> Adapt the symbols, periods, position sizes, risk limits, and any criteria to your approach or preferences. Carefully study every prompt before using it and review any proposed action before executing it.
>
> You are solely responsible for AI-generated content, AI-assisted actions, trading decisions, trading results, and any resulting losses.

Volatility doubling:

Stress my open positions with volatility doubled from its 20-trading-day average and spreads widened by 50%. Estimate the effect on stop distance, margin pressure, and correlated losses, then identify unsafe position sizes and stops.

Correlation crisis:

Using normal and stressed correlations from the last 60 trading days, model a scenario where all correlated open positions move together. Show which diversification disappears and the reduction needed to stay within my loss limit.

Failure of the best setup:

For my highest-quality current setup, build the strongest case against it. Identify H1 price behavior, cross-market confirmation failure, volatility change, or structural break that would invalidate it before the stop is reached, then create an early-warning checklist.

Skip-or-trade decision:

Compare today's spreads, volatility, H1 trend quality, available setups, and portfolio state with my trading results from the last three months. State whether current conditions resemble my stronger or weaker periods and whether staying flat is justified.

Half-size results:

Recalculate the last six months of results at half the original trade size. Compare profit, maximum drawdown, losing-streak impact, return volatility, and recovery time.

Only top setups:

Using the last six months of trades, keep only the strongest objectively defined setup class and remove lower-quality trades. Compare profit, expectancy, drawdown, transaction costs, and frequency with all trades.

Worst-market removal:

Using the last six months of trades, recalculate results after excluding each frequently traded symbol. Compare net profit, drawdown, expectancy, costs, and diversification to identify removals that genuinely improve results.

Third-party EA loss review:

Run a one-month backtest of this EA. Review losing trades with H1 data before and after entry, identify recurring failure conditions, and propose simple rules for avoiding similar losses.

Reverse stress testing:

For open positions #73124501 EURUSD, #73124518 GBPUSD, #73124537 USDJPY, #73124552 XAUUSD, #73124576 US500, and #73124591 AAPL, work backward from a 10% equity loss using a fixed grid of shared market moves from 1% to 10%, normal or doubled spreads, and the account's pending orders either inactive or triggered. Evaluate these 40 combinations and report the smallest coherent failure path.

Historical-analog morphing:

For EURUSD position #73124501, XAUUSD position #73124552, US500 position #73124576, and AAPL position #73124591, use the latest 120 D1 bars to find the three non-overlapping 10-day multivariate paths most similar to the latest 10 days. Apply each analog's following five-day percentage path to current prices and show the three portfolio outcomes without treating them as forecasts.

Network-contagion cascade:

For EURUSD, GBPUSD, USDJPY, XAUUSD, US500, and AAPL positions #73124501, #73124518, #73124537, #73124552, #73124576, and #73124591, construct a directed network from the latest 120 D1 returns and one-day lagged correlations above 0.3. Shock each node by one historical standard deviation and propagate only two rounds while halving the effect at each round, then identify the largest cascade loss.

Bayesian regime tree:

Using EURUSD position #73124501, XAUUSD position #73124552, US500 position #73124576, and AAPL position #73124591 and their latest 120 D1 returns, classify each day into three fixed regimes from portfolio return and dispersion. Build a two-step transition tree with exactly nine branches, revalue the portfolio with each regime's median return, and highlight the most damaging branch.

Adversarial intrabar path:

For the next hypothetical H1 bar on EURUSD position #73124501, XAUUSD position #73124552, and US500 position #73124576, hold OHLC fixed and evaluate six canonical paths through the four prices. Revalue current stops, targets, pending fills, and margin under each path and compare the worst ordering with the optimistic one.

Model-disagreement scenario:

For EURUSD position #73124501, XAUUSD position #73124552, US500 position #73124576, and AAPL position #73124591 and their latest 250 D1 returns, estimate one-day 95% portfolio loss with four fixed methods: historical simulation, one generalized Pareto tail fit, one Student-t copula, and a three-state empirical regime model. Report their range and plan from the largest estimate.

Quote-drought duration tree:

For XAUUSD position #73124552, US500 position #73124576, and USDJPY position #73124537, use the latest 5,000 ticks each to identify the five longest quote gaps and their reopening spread and jump. Replay one-, five-, and fifteen-minute droughts using those observed recoveries and show which stops or exits remain usable.

Strategy-decay scenario:

From the latest 100 LondonBreakout_v4 trades with magic number 41027, create three fixed decay cases in which win probability, payoff ratio, and fill quality worsen by 10%, 20%, or 30%. Simulate 200 trade sequences for shutdown delays of 10, 25, and 50 trades and report median loss and 95th-percentile drawdown.

Nonlinear margin spiral:

For EURUSD position #73124501, GBPUSD position #73124518, USDJPY position #73124537, XAUUSD position #73124552, and US500 position #73124576, apply a shared adverse move of 1% per round and widen spreads by 25% per round. Recalculate equity, free margin, and the partial liquidation of the largest margin-consuming position for five rounds, then identify the earliest reduction that prevents further forced liquidation.

Recovery-geometry comparison:

For EURUSD position #73124501, XAUUSD position #73124552, US500 position #73124576, and AAPL position #73124591, create V-shaped, U-shaped, L-shaped, and whipsaw paths of 12 H1 steps that finish 3% below current prices and use comparable total movement. Revalue current stops, targets, pending orders, costs, and margin under the four paths.

## In this section

- [Quick Analysis for Market Entry](https://www.metatrader5.com/pt/terminal/help/practical_examples/market_entry_analysis)
- [Risk Management Operations](https://www.metatrader5.com/pt/terminal/help/practical_examples/risk_management_operations)
- [Account and Behavioral Analysis](https://www.metatrader5.com/pt/terminal/help/practical_examples/account_behavioral_analysis)
- [Quick Workspace Preparation](https://www.metatrader5.com/pt/terminal/help/practical_examples/workspace_preparation)
- [Backtesting and Optimization](https://www.metatrader5.com/pt/terminal/help/practical_examples/backtesting_optimization)
- [Reverse Engineering of Strategy](https://www.metatrader5.com/pt/terminal/help/practical_examples/strategy_reverse_engineering)
- [Strategy Discovery and New Edge Research](https://www.metatrader5.com/pt/terminal/help/practical_examples/strategy_discovery)
- Scenario Planning and What-If Analysis

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